Disclaimer: This is NOT a promise you will make $1 or $1million dollars. This is not a promise you’ll become rich and famous and get your own reality show on Netflix.
I’m about to tell you… how you can 99% ensure success … with anything. It comes down to a complicated….. But very simple sanity check.
Let’s talk about this in terms of marketing.
Calling any idea or an Ad for example.. a “WINNER” or “a LOSER” too soon, is one of the biggest mistakes people make.
Including me, even after well over a million dollars spent in Advertising… when a new idea or campaign is launched for the first time… I still occasionally find myself judging all too soon. And usually…the problem is cutting it off too soon.
Quick tip, every time I launch a new Ad on Facebook or wherever, I always launch 3-4 completely different ads. And I encourage you to do the same. A small difference can double your sales.
So.. still using this example, sometimes when I set up 4 new Ads… all the ads will be about the same thing. But the words in the ads, pictures, etc, will be different.
After a little while, I’ll see that one of the ads made 6 sales. Another one made 2 sales… and the 3rd and 4th ad made 0 sales.
And this is where the big mistake is made.
I hope by listening, reading or watching this video, you WILL NOT fall for this all too common trap.
I’m going to show you the only way you should be making decisions like this.
It takes guts.
You have to be brave.
You’ll think you’re losing money, even though you don’t know if you really are or are not yet.
To help me explain what I’m talking about..
Let me ask you this…
If you “generally” want to know if a new Movie is good. You ask the person at work who saw it on the weekend. They say, “nah, it wasn’t that good…”
So… the movie isn’t worth seeing right?
Of course, this is just 1 person’s point of view.
If you want to know if that new Thai restaurant is any good, do you take the advice of just 1 person?
What if you asked 10 different people ? If you did that, and 5 said it was good. And 5 said it was bad….
You’re still at square 1 !
Of course you could go and order a Lunch special for yourself to test it out… but you’re also only 1 person… with your own taste and biases.
We want to know if the Restaurant is “generally” good. On average…
It’s the same thing with an Ad. If 100 people see your ad, and you make 2 sales and make a profit… does that mean you have a winner?
No it doesn’t.
If you ask 10 people if the thai restaurant is good, 7 say YES and 3 say NO… does that mean the Thai restaurant is good…? Absolutely not.
What I’m getting to here is.. SAMPLE SIZES. You have to make sure you have a big enough sample size before you make any decisions.
So what’s the magic number? Is it 15 people? 50 people ? 150 people…
Well, lucky for me… (and maybe lucky for you too)… because this is where the maths start to get over my head.
..some very smart people created a mathematical equation to calculate this exact dilemma!
And… they are so smart, they can even calculate how certain you can be that the numbers are right.
So if 7 out of 10 people say the Thai Restaurant is good…. The mathematical equation can tell you ….. Using these numbers (7 out of 10) … you only have a 50/50 chance of that actually being correct. Even though 7 is the majority… the maths “knows” that 10 isn’t a big number… you really need more samples of people… like 50, or 200 .. or…. more.
I don’t know about you… but If I’m putting money into Ads… I want a better than 50/50 chance of knowing that the Ad that made a couple of sales after 24 hours… is still going to be the best Ad after 7 days. Or 30 days. Or more.
This is why, using my example earlier… turning off 2 ads that made 0 sales… and leaving the ad on that made a few sales…. Is as accurate as rolling the dice. The odds are literally against you.
So, how do we solve this? And how do we know when to STOP trying something out or to CONTINUE to get more samples…?
Like I said… math geniuses have figured out for me and you.
And then… computer geniuses… made it into free and pretty website calculators and placed them all over the internet for free access!!
There is hundreds of these online, so the example I show you now, might be offline by the time you’re watching or listening to this.
So all you need to do.. Is go to Google and type in “AB Split Test Free Calculator “ .. and you will find one.
But if it’s still working… this one is very easy to use and understand.
http://getdatadriven.com/ab-significance-test
This is a A vs B calculator..
Meaning if I wanted to choose… which Thai Restaurant I would go to… A or B ..
All I need to do is ask 10 different people, who went to each restaurant.
10 who went to Thai Restaurant A
And
10 who went to Thai Restaurant B
If 7 people said A was great.. I’d type that in ..
If 6 people said B was great. I’d type that in.
Quick Marketing Trick Ep6 First Test example.
Now you can see on the right hand side it says.. “We are 68% certain that A is better than B..”
68% is not a good guarantee is it?
Imagine you are testing which AD was better. A or B… would you be happy with a 68% chance of success… ? and then go and stop the B Ad… ?
I wouldn’t . And I don’t. And I don’t suggest you bet your success on a 68% chance of winning.
If you’re trying to increase your sales, make more profit, have a successful business… or decide ANYTHING really… You need to make sure you’re making the right decisions.
You need more info.
More data.
The lesson here for me, and for you is to… don’t give up on something until you’ve done this test.
And on that same note, don’t claim you have a winner… until you’ve done this test.
What would it REALLY take to know if Thai Restaurant A or B was “generally” better… and not just decided by the opinion of a few people.
Or… what would it take to know if your Ad was more likely to be successful.
Let’s go back to the calculator and find out.
Let’s now call these Ads, and not Thai Restaurants.
- Ad A had 10 people see it, and 7 people bought the product.
- Ad B had 10 people see it also, and 6 people bought the product.
Now we know that there is only a 68% chance that Ad A is actually better..
Split Test 2
So what if 100 people saw each ad…
And 70 people bought from A and 60 people bought after seeing Ad B.
Let’s find out…
Because… now we have a sample size of 100 people. That’s a lot more than just 10. The bigger the sample size… the more accurate your results will be LONG TERM.
Now we can see that …. There is 93% chance… Ad A is going to win.
93% is good. But I can tell you that companies like Apple and other manufacturing companies… they work in the over 99% range.
So let’s amp this up again now…
Let’s go to 1000 and see what the results are.
Now you can see… based on these numbers… the calculator has told us that… Ad A has a 100% chance of being better than Ad B…
NOW YOU HAVE THE STATS TO BACK YOU UP!
If you wanted to show this ad not only to 1000 people… but to 10,000 people.. Or 100,000 people.
That’s why it was so important to work this out.
Before you saw the results of 100 people or 1000 people…
You only had a 63% chance of Ad A being the better ad.
I would never then run with Ad A… and invest more advertising money to show Ad A to 100,000 people. That’s going to be very expensive… and I only have a 63% chance of it being the most successful ad.
Does all this make sense ?
I totally understand if numbers really aren’t your thing.
But as a baseline… you need to understand this asap.
This can help you decide on..
- the Name of a product
- the Price of a product
- the Colour of a product
- the Ad for the product, etc.
If you have any questions about this, come over to the Quick Marketing Trick facebook page and post your question there. I’ll try to get to it, but if I don’t likely someone will be able to help you out with it.
So what’s the moral of this story?
It’s “Never ASSUME you know what is going to work.”
Come up with 3 or 4 different versions of what you think will work..
And then test them all.
And finally… don’t stop your test too early.
Only make a decision on your test when you have a 95% or more chance of success. Based on this or a similar calculator.
This is not personal business advice. This is general advice. This is how I make all my decisions, and it’s worked well for me. Maybe it will work well for you too.
Can I offer you something else truely awesome? Because you read this, I don’t really offer this much outside but..
Do you want a Free, quick little guide to Facebook Ads?
There’s a free online Facebooks guide I put together that will show you the structure of a successful ad.
Have you ever wondered… What you should write in the ad?
- Or what picture type will work best?
- What AD type to use?
- Is this something you want help with?
This is why I created the Free Facebook Ads Guide.
To get a free access, go here now: https://craigmarty.com/free-book-on-facebook-ads
PLUS, as a bonus.. in the guide I answer the all too famous question about Facebook ads. that is “how much should I spend?”..
If you want the answer to that, plus a awesome little guide to launching a good ad.. not just any ad. … go to FacebookAdsGuide.com.au and get your access now.
It’s 100% free at the moment. So go and grab a copy while you can.
That’s it. Until next time, best wishes and talk soon.
Notes
Free Online Calculator to test what version of anything is REALLY the best (outside of personal opinion).
Note: if this ever goes down, let me know and I’ll update it.. And just search google for “ Free A B Test Calculator “ and you should find several to use.
http://getdatadriven.com/ab-significance-test
Free Book on Facebook Ads:
https://craigmarty.com/free-book-on-facebook-ads
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